Tips for Super Bowl bets

Manifest Destiny.

It is the belief that the United States is destined to become the empire bigger and bigger in history. It is the idea that we as a people are inherently right and selected for greatness. And is the manifestation of a principle at the core in our society, bigger is better.

If our nuclear weapons program or a Big Mac, the lust of the American grandeur. It is a fundamental American ideal and can be found throughout our culture. But when it comes to absolute greed and self-importance and hyperbole there is no single event in the American calendar that can match with Sunday's Super Bowl, to be held this year on Feb. 4 in Miami.

Do not be fooled. Trade above budget and avocado dip is not in the heart of this annual orgy of greed, excess and consumerism. The true soul of the event can be our desire to conquer the world market, but the spirit of this Day of the Lord is in the fervor and anxiety of millions of players with anger throughout the country.

"You will never publicly admit the NFL, but that the league will not be the most popular sport in the United States if not for the ability of people to bet on it, "said Benjamin Ross, a professional handicapper long time. "The NFL realizes that gambling is going on is an integral part of the popularity and success of (the Super Bowl)."

For Some Super Bowl represents the fourth attempt to move Ave Maria, and some faint of heart last gasp attempt at redemption and save a lost season to poor fate and hubris. For others, the great game represents a kind of pagan celebration of their good fortune and cunning at all other times, bizarre years in the NFL. For them is the crowning of its intrinsic superiority and the opportunity to run the score against the gamblers.

But regardless of their level of fear or despair, Super Bowl gives people a last resort to press his luck in a very public duel with the Gods gambling. It also symbolizes a final day for worship at the Altar the speed and savagery that is the NFL.

According to the Nevada Gaming Control Board state licensed bookmakers processed approximately $ 94,500,000 in bets Super Bowl XL. Nielsen TV ratings claim that last year's competition attracted about 90.7 million viewers in the United States alone. That deleting posted nearly $ 10 per spectator. In addition, the estimates included offshore gambling site game's total handle in the range of $ 1 billion. That only represents the amount of money wagered legally and the true scope of this event can not be quantified.

So, from every heretic and crazy which is seen or heard of soccer aims to put a bit of green in the title game, how can the experienced players find value in the lines? This situation difficult, but I did some research and prepare a five-point plan for a successful game Super Bowl Sunday. There are no guarantees, except that if you follow this plan, your chances of winning increase exponentially:

1) When you bet on the Super Bowl, understand the line.

"The Most people do not realize that we do most of our lines during the year led to "know" or "gamblers professionals, "said Jay Kornegay, the former Executive Director of Racing and Sport for the now defunct Las Vegas Hilton." The Super Bowl is the line that focuses on achieving or how the betting public views novice or the game. "

During the regular season goal is to balance the books action. The lines are not written in an attempt to predict the actual outcome, but to prompt an equal or nearly equal amount of bets on each side of any game in particular. However, the public mostly betting favorite in the Super Bowl. This makes it a kamikaze of the books or chalk covers and John Q. Public can afford that new TV flat screen or disabled covers and books can pour their profits into whores.

In response to the bettor square whim crowd favorite in the shade books extends further than normal. The idea is to bring sharp objects to support the dog at a higher price or through a key number. The result is that favorites from 1990 are gone 13-4 with a straight back, but a modest 8-7-2 against the spread. In general, the chalk is 26-14 SU, 19-18-3 ATS but only the big game.

Rumble is the operational logic in any country so wild and ruthless as ours. Betting on the Super Bowl is no different. The public is a drunk crazy lazy, brainwashed when it comes to football. What to expect from a team that gets its information from Chris Berman or Michael Irvin? So for the fall in lock step with the public you can walk without knowing it, from a bridge.

Now, that does not mean you can not make copies of the favorite. Last year I cleaned the house with Pittsburgh as one of four heavy over Seattle. I knew they were a better team and was able to reach a favorable number. But while the 21-10 final may have seemed like a lid easy Seahawks fact led to the Pittsburgh 23-yard line with less than a minute left. If they had succeeded a garbage touchdown pushed me and all those poor souls who took the Steelers would have lost in a heartbreaker -4.5.

If you are going to play a favorite that should enter in the game with the specific number in mind. If the spread of openness is in that range you should hit early and often because the longer they persist over likely to move against him. On the contrary, if you are the favorite senses that you want to wait until the money flows in the chalk. There is a good chance they can steal a precious extra half-point or point before kickoff.

2. Meet your coaches.

If I had to bet your mortgage on a party NFL, the coach would like to lead his team?

"I always personally assess each coach as to how well prepared who has had his team in any situation of big game who have been involved, "said Benjamin." Is the extra week of preparation time to promote a coach head over the other?

"It is also very important in terms of how well each team is disciplined with all the distractions that occur within two weeks prior to the game. The discipline of a team is a direct reflection of the coach. The discipline in this environment is equal focus and attention to detail. These factors are not be underestimated. "

Discipline in professional football can mean different things to different people. To you it may represent care of the ball and not make crippling sanctions. To me this means taking special care to ensure that their players do not end up drunk and babbling in the corner of a Mexican bar or do not attempt to solicit sex from local police. Those things have a way to disrupt the karma of a team, and you can usually get a reading on the history that the drag of a coach.

3. Do you have experience?

Experience is a cousin of the discipline. And when it comes Hype Machine in search of victims that I will always side with the guys who have been there before and used for victory.

My personal Big-Big Game Program corollary states that if you have an organization or the city making their first appearance Great Game - Seattle - and they are facing an organization or a city that is used for titles - Pittsburgh - then you have to give significant weight to the pedigree of champions.

This may seem like another one of my wild and unsubstantiated theories born out drunk some horrible methods, but the story really supports it. For the first time Super Bowl participants are just 7-19 in the history of the game. That included a 1-6 mark virgin since 1993. On the contrary, the teams take five or more occurrences are a solid 9-3.

4. Know who you're playing, and know where they are.

I'm not talking about pets know when their team was tight end in college. I'm talking about a solid analysis, empirical. You need to look in schedule of both teams for the common opponents or opponents that play a similar brand of football. It is necessary to see how these teams have been playing lately and the momentum seems to be in. And, finally, be noted that the conference each team plays in a group and how they did against their counterparts during the season.

The dominance of a particular conference has been a recurring and cyclical over the history of the NFL championship. Initially, the AFC won 11 the first 15 Super Bowls slopes, followed by an obscene 15-1 in charge of the NFC. In those 15 games in the NFC in average margin of victory 16.5 points.

However, the pendulum has swung to the AFC in recent years. They are 7-2 with back straight and 5-3-1 ATS since Green Bay was beaten by Denver in 1998. What this me NFC says is that two or three humiliating defeats left in him before regaining its perch on the pole of the NFL.

Conference totalitarianism seems to be a contradiction directly on what has become the backbone of stability in the league and popularity - parity. Historical data does not lie, but recent statistics indicate, indeed that the gap in the championship game is shrinking. Between 1987-1996 the average margin of victory in the championship was an induced coma 19.4 points. But since 1997 until 2006 that the thin margin of 10.7 points. In addition, three of the last five games were decided by a field goal with four less likely to display and two won.

5. Defense wins championships.

Everyone knows - is Gambling 101 - but worth repeating. Since 1990, the units defense was ranked among the three overall during the regular season are a perfect 9-0 in the Super Bowl. Five of those nine wins were by a top-ranked unit, they were a pristine 5-0. With teams in the league, No. 1 offense was 6-3 in the championship game, but not half a dozen winners of a defense ranked lower to No. 6 during the year.

In the past six years have seen a dominant defense to win the title and finish on the money. Pittsburgh (2006), New England (2005, 2004, 2002), Tampa Bay (2003) and Baltimore (2001) were all rough and rugged units that appears brandishing whip, causing concussion, defense unprecedented bone. The result was that it was a combination of 4-2 ATS.

Keep all of these suggestions in mind when you're betting the Super Bowl remember: go for everything. It is what it means to be an American issue.

Carpe Diem, my friend. And good luck.

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